The likelihood that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF in 2025 has risen sharply, reflecting renewed optimism in the market.

According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the implied probability has reached 64%, representing a 54% increase in bullish sentiment compared to the beginning of the year.

The interest revolves around Grayscale’s ETF proposal for ADA, with a decision scheduled for May 29. On that day, the SEC must either approve, reject, or extend the regulatory process, and the market is on edge.

The Change at the SEC Fuels Expectations
Although the odds fluctuated during the first and second quarters, the outlook shifted following the appointment of Paul Atkins as the new chairman of the SEC, a figure considered pro-crypto by analysts and ecosystem participants. His appointment has strengthened confidence that regulatory approval for ADA may be possible in the short term.

The SEC formalized the start of the review process on February 24, by officially acknowledging the proposal to list and trade shares of the Grayscale Cardano Trust on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE Arca). This activation triggered a standard 45-day extension, which ends on May 29.

Currently, there are 72 cryptocurrency-linked ETF applications under review, although only two are focused exclusively on Cardano: the Grayscale ETF and the Tuttle Capital 2X Cardano ETF, the latter with a leveraged approach.

If approved, both would represent a significant milestone for ADA by facilitating institutional adoption and bringing greater legitimacy to its ecosystem.